Statistical methods for analysing the spatial dimension of changes in land use and farming systems

AIC Akaike information criterion AUC area under the curve COV coefficient of variation GIS geographic information systems GPS Global Positioning System HYV high-yielding variety LUCC land use and land cover change NDVI normalized difference vegetation index OLS ordinary least squares PCA principal component analysis ROC relative or receiver operating characteristic SC Schwartz criterion SSE error sum of squares SSR regression sum of squares SST total sum of squares TLU tropical livestock unit 8 9 Acknowledgements This report is written as part of the project 'Transregional analysis of crop-livestock systems: understanding intensification and evolution across three continents' commissioned by the Ecoregional Fund and implemented by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in collaboration with the Department of Environmental Sciences of Wageningen University, and the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute. This report reviews a large amount of knowledge from the Land Use and Land Cover Change research community (LUCC, a joint IGBP/IHDP project) and is one of the activities of the LUCC Focus 3 Office hosted by the Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University. Part of the writing was funded by the Foundation for the Advancement of Tropical Research (WOTRO) of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) within the project 'Integrating macro-modelling and actor-oriented research in studying the dynamics of land use change in NorthEast Luzon, Philippines'. The authors would like to thank all who contributed to this report, especially the contributions of Isabelle Baltenweck, Jeannette van de Steeg and Koen Overmars and the thoughtful reviews of two anonymous referees. 1 Introduction Land use and land cover change (LUCC) has important impacts on the functioning of socioeconomic and environmental systems with important tradeoffs for sustainability, food security, biodiversity and the vulnerability of people and ecosystems to global change impacts. Land cover change refers to the complete replacement of one cover type by another, e.g. deforestation. Land use change includes the modification of land cover types, e.g. intensification of agricultural management or other changes in the farming system. Land use and land cover changes are the result of the interplay between socioeconomic , institutional and environmental factors. Key to understanding LUCC is to recognize the role of individual decision makers bringing about change, through their choices, on land resources and technologies. A unifying hypothesis that links the ecological and social realms, and an important reason for pursuing integrated modelling of LUCC, is that humans respond to cues both from the physical environment and …